Friday, January 30, 2009

Yes... Week-end !

Barack Obama (ce nouveau "brand" de la politique américaine) - une vision à long terme.
Michel Daerden (ce Serge Gainsbourg de la politique belge) - une vision à court terme.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Financial crisis impact on Mobile Operators

According to a recent article from TMCnet, the financial and economic crisis starts affecting the Mobile industry.
It is however good to notice that, contrary to Manufacturers, Mobile Operators seem to be less impacted.
Why would that be? Would that not be more natural that, given the crisis, people reduce their traffic-related expenses, rather than handset-purchase expenses?
Or, would that not be natural to see a severe drop in Operators revenue? The maximum yet recorded (at least that I know of), is mentioned to be a 25% revenue shrink in some Indonesian Mobile Operators. Others have even improved year-to-year figures.

So, what's the explanation of such resiliance?

According to some models that I tend to believe, Mobile Operators should be looked upon as Commodities Suppliers, exactly like an Energy, Water or Gas company.
For a long time I thought this view was only applicable as far as differentiation is concerned (i.e. - doesn't make a lot of difference between air-time you buy from Orange, Vodafone, AT&T, Telia, NTT DoCoMo or whoever else).

Surprisingly, the "commodity" atributes apply to dependence as well, meaning that our lives depend more and more on mobile communication and those services are actually not the first ones we are ready to cut-off in case of consumption budget shrink.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

The "Do nothing" strategy explained

I recently became very surprised to realize that something as powerful as the "do nothing" strategy has not yet earned a place of itself in a a popular encyclopedia like Wikipedia.
Moreover, typing a simple Google search "do nothing" doesn't reveal any valuable example of this way of acting.

As a fervent admirer and a convinced practitionner of "do nothing", I decided to expose at least two good examples that could help my readers acquiring better understanding of how to "do nothing" and ultimately guide them towards a higher and healthier level of wisdom.

In business management or survival techniques, we have the following (fictious) example:

You are flying an airplane, over a remote region of Canada, together with other passengers. Due to an engine problem, you are obliged to a forced landing, in the middle of nowhere, in a cold area, surrounded by snow, lakes, swamps and 200 km's away from any potential human settlement.
The question is: what do you do next, knowing that you are left with several objects such as: a compass, 2 sleeping bags, that much food, a torch, etc. ?

After duely assessing the situation, the good answer to the question is that you should "do nothing" else than sit down on your ass, and wait for rescues, as there are more chances to get saved by others than to save yourself by willing to do something smart, when you stand absolutely no chance. On the contrary, in such cases you are more likely to perish in this unfriendly environment.

The second example is another famous one, taken from the military:

During his campaign in Gaul, Julius Cesar with his 50.000 troops managed to surround and besiege the fortress of Alesia, where 80.000 men were garnisoned.
About 3 to 4 weeks later, not being able to push Alesia into capitulation, the Roman army got encircled itself, by some 250.000 Gauls coming as a relief force.
In such a precarious situation, many would have attempted to break through, either towards the fortress or outwards, through the gross of the Gallic army.
Well, Caesar didn't do any of that, he simply "did nothing", until the "outside" Gallic army, desperate to free-up their fellows from the fortress, launched several suicidal attacks on the Roman positions.

There are many other good examples, worth being mentionned, of the DO NOTHING strategy but I leave it to my readers to find them by themselves.

Meaning of the story: the DO NOTHING strategy is to be applied whenever the complexity of the environment or the situation is such that no predictable outcome can be foreseen. It is also applicable whenever your "oponent" or oposing force (be it a person, a situation or a state of facts) is likely to act towards its self-consumption or self-destruction.
In the worst of the cases, you will have preserved your energy and ressources, to be able to survive and act in a better way during the further developments.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Prost sa fii, noroc ca esti

La inceputul lui 2009 Guvernul german decide sa ofere o prima de 2500 € celor care isi caseaza masina (mai veche de 9 ani) si isi cumpara una mai noua de 1 an.
Inainte de sfarsitul lui Ianuarie 2009 apar primele semne ca programul "rabla germana" se bucura de un real succes, nemtii inghesuindu-se sa-si caseze masinile vechi.

Ne intoarcem putin in timp:

In Martie 2008 angajatii Dacia intra in greva, cerand cresteri salariale de 60% si scandand lozinci anti-frantuzesti.
In toamna lui 2008, la presiunea media si a altor partide politice, Guvernul Tariceanu elimina taxa auto.
Octombrie 2008 - vine criza.
Octombrie + Noiembrie 2008 - se inmatriculeaza mai multe masini second-hand decat in tot anul.
Decembrie 2008 - industria auto romaneasca e grav afectata, Dacia isi intrerupe temporar activitatea iar guvernul tripleaza taxa auto.
Ianuarie 2009 - 7000 de angajati Dacia ies in strada scandand lozinci pro-franceze si impotriva eliminarii taxei auto.

Ianuarie 2009 - Guvernul german initiaza programul "rabla germana", scotand de pe piata masinile second-hand atat de ravnite de romani si re-lansand exporturile Dacia in Germania.

Concluzie: Prost sa fii, noroc ca existi.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Here I am

Here I am! I have a blog.
Good stuff.

Nu mai ramane decat sa-l impodobesc cu constructii mentale de o ingeniozitate aparte.